People do not like to learn new things , they want to stay in state which they have achieved for last 4-5 years .
Due this newton's third law of inertia , in dynamic software industry some people will be picked up for purposeful Darwinism in coming years.
We are in second technological wave where companies are creating parallel product in cloud as replacement for the product which they have on-prem for decades. Some are doing for genuine reason , some because they have more money and some just to stay in vogue .
Good examples are - Microsoft outlook has been moved in cloud , now called office-365 . Veritas backup products have been moved in hybrid/private/public cloud , banking,finance and tax computing software have moved to cloud . Some companies have tried and failed for cloud model . Coming time will tell whether cloud model is fit for there product or not . Some time companies are putting large amount of money for cloud transition but for some return on investment are negative. Such companies are in turbulent environment for now because they do not know how they are going to stay relevant in cloud wave .Some companies are still measuring to be or not to be in cloud. Such companies will go extinct. (example Yahoo, HP , IBM)
We are waiting for third wave to come which will be called internet of things (IOT).
In first wave during 1990-2010, internet penetrated financial services, entertainment , healthcare , news etc sectors .
In second wave it is all about social media twitter , Facebook , LinkedIn , whats-app.etc. So internet has become one of important aspect of our social interaction that nowadays people are judged by their sheer number of friends , posts and photos on such sites. People who are not active at such sites are stigmatized and even called anti-social.
In third wave internet will penetrate even more in all aspects of our life , in mundane tasks .It will surreptitiously control your fridge , AC , geyser , electricity , water supply , door security ,self driving cars , drone delivery , CCTV etc . In this wave, in day to day people will not able to live without internet .Because to do basic things like buying vegetable , commuting , managing water ,electricity ,government bill etc . you will need internet .There will not be real people collecting bills of electricity , water , tax electricity which we see nowadays .There will not be paper money , all will be through smart phone with internet .All things will be so available while sitting in home , we will need to find excuses to get out of home.
What will be impact for software developers ?
How they should be ready to change else fear to become extinct dodo bird .
For second wave which is cloud wave/Big data , you should be ready with following things
My thoughts on third wave -(2020-2030)
1. There will be RFC (RFC 822 (specification for email) like specification for devices like AC , Fridge , Washing Machine ,Car , water taps , traffic signal etc .
Standardization about parameters that each device need to send to centralized server .
Explosion in AI and predictive analytic framework and services .
Specifications about how same type /disparate type of devices will communicate with each other .
There might be either server model or peer to peer model where each devices to talk to each other and take collective decisions .
2. For such things big software companies like Apple , Google , Microsoft need to work with device manufacturing companies like Samsung , LG , Hitachi , Honda, Toyota , Nissan etc .They can work on common standards and protocols which each device need to communicate with software based AI systems .
3. There will be need to WiFi like hub in each home so that such devices able to connect to internet .There could be more efficient communication protocol then current WiFi
4. There will need for software/code for chips which should be smart enough to either detect such hub and communicate with them or they can communicate directly with centralized service . In that case will will need mobile like cards in each devices .
5. There will need to platform to which such data will be sent for analysis and decision making .There will be centralized control for such devices so that owner can control them remotely .
6. There will new trend in analytic to crunch continuous stream of data from such devices and make sense out of it . Intelligence could used to save energy for efficient use of device or creating recommendation systems in case behavior of device is deviating from other device for same usage pattern.
There could be smart fridges who can auto-order food items when then exhaust below threshold settings .
We could have chip-powered hearts /smart prosthetic /sensor chips in our body .
Third wave will be about making all machines/devices intelligent using software in them. It will start of interaction between computer science and other branches of science(Mechanical , Electrical , Medical) on larger scale .
Third wave will be advent for Fourth wave of technology where robotics will have penetrated each household on earth for doing our mundane tasks .
My thoughts about fourth wave (Robotics) (2030-2050)
It will not be different from any sci-fi movie .
Integral part of our life will smart devices and robots .
User interface on computer and web will be out dated . Human can communicate with machines in their natural language.So called mouse will be outdated like floppy disk and CD which are now object of antiquity .
Instead of smartphone everybody will have smart-buddy robot .
Whole computing model itself might change .Right now all operating systems and major algorithms are based on assumption that we have some standard kind of memory structure(HDD, SSD) . Our algorithms are currently tweaked for limitations of current memory systems . We are designing algorithms which have less disk seeks or they read whole page memory like continuous memory model etc.
In future this model might change as our basic assumption changes so our logarithms and so our programming language to exploit new memory model .
Current programming languages may not be enough , there might be new kind programming languages. for new computing model . Those might be even voice command based languages.
Due this newton's third law of inertia , in dynamic software industry some people will be picked up for purposeful Darwinism in coming years.
We are in second technological wave where companies are creating parallel product in cloud as replacement for the product which they have on-prem for decades. Some are doing for genuine reason , some because they have more money and some just to stay in vogue .
Good examples are - Microsoft outlook has been moved in cloud , now called office-365 . Veritas backup products have been moved in hybrid/private/public cloud , banking,finance and tax computing software have moved to cloud . Some companies have tried and failed for cloud model . Coming time will tell whether cloud model is fit for there product or not . Some time companies are putting large amount of money for cloud transition but for some return on investment are negative. Such companies are in turbulent environment for now because they do not know how they are going to stay relevant in cloud wave .Some companies are still measuring to be or not to be in cloud. Such companies will go extinct. (example Yahoo, HP , IBM)
We are waiting for third wave to come which will be called internet of things (IOT).
In first wave during 1990-2010, internet penetrated financial services, entertainment , healthcare , news etc sectors .
In second wave it is all about social media twitter , Facebook , LinkedIn , whats-app.etc. So internet has become one of important aspect of our social interaction that nowadays people are judged by their sheer number of friends , posts and photos on such sites. People who are not active at such sites are stigmatized and even called anti-social.
In third wave internet will penetrate even more in all aspects of our life , in mundane tasks .It will surreptitiously control your fridge , AC , geyser , electricity , water supply , door security ,self driving cars , drone delivery , CCTV etc . In this wave, in day to day people will not able to live without internet .Because to do basic things like buying vegetable , commuting , managing water ,electricity ,government bill etc . you will need internet .There will not be real people collecting bills of electricity , water , tax electricity which we see nowadays .There will not be paper money , all will be through smart phone with internet .All things will be so available while sitting in home , we will need to find excuses to get out of home.
What will be impact for software developers ?
How they should be ready to change else fear to become extinct dodo bird .
For second wave which is cloud wave/Big data , you should be ready with following things
- Need to think algorithms with distributed computing in mind .Instead how thinking how algorithm will perform in single JVM ,we should able to imagine how we can break it in small pieces and process in parallel on large number of node . (scatter , compute and gather ). In such cases even-though computing pieces might be somewhat less efficient compared to solving problem in single JVM , but when done in distributed fashion time required will be only function of number of nodes computing it .So we need to think scale-out for algorithms because we can not scale-up much with commodity machines. Such model will save money and expenditure on computing will change as per variation in demand .Today due to distributed nature of cloud computing , there is more need to parallelalize the algorithm to scale .
- At least one cloud platform like AWS ,Open-stack etc. Because as you might know windows and Linux in past as OS but now you should know main components and APIs for such systems . example for AWS you should know, how to create AWS instances , S3 storage , SSE encryption , RDS , Elastic Cache , monitoring clusters etc.You should know tools are cluster monitoring like uptrend , solar winds , ELK stack etc.
- You should know NO-SQL technologies like Cassandra , elastic search (scale-able Lucene ) , Redis , Dynamo-db ,Apache Hadoop / Spark stack etc.
- You should know AI frameworks /Machine learning platforms - like Amazon machine learning , predictive analytic . R language for analytic .
- Other than java , you should know how to code in Python , Scala , Angular JS etc.
My thoughts on third wave -(2020-2030)
1. There will be RFC (RFC 822 (specification for email) like specification for devices like AC , Fridge , Washing Machine ,Car , water taps , traffic signal etc .
Standardization about parameters that each device need to send to centralized server .
Explosion in AI and predictive analytic framework and services .
Specifications about how same type /disparate type of devices will communicate with each other .
There might be either server model or peer to peer model where each devices to talk to each other and take collective decisions .
2. For such things big software companies like Apple , Google , Microsoft need to work with device manufacturing companies like Samsung , LG , Hitachi , Honda, Toyota , Nissan etc .They can work on common standards and protocols which each device need to communicate with software based AI systems .
3. There will be need to WiFi like hub in each home so that such devices able to connect to internet .There could be more efficient communication protocol then current WiFi
4. There will need for software/code for chips which should be smart enough to either detect such hub and communicate with them or they can communicate directly with centralized service . In that case will will need mobile like cards in each devices .
5. There will need to platform to which such data will be sent for analysis and decision making .There will be centralized control for such devices so that owner can control them remotely .
6. There will new trend in analytic to crunch continuous stream of data from such devices and make sense out of it . Intelligence could used to save energy for efficient use of device or creating recommendation systems in case behavior of device is deviating from other device for same usage pattern.
There could be smart fridges who can auto-order food items when then exhaust below threshold settings .
We could have chip-powered hearts /smart prosthetic /sensor chips in our body .
Third wave will be about making all machines/devices intelligent using software in them. It will start of interaction between computer science and other branches of science(Mechanical , Electrical , Medical) on larger scale .
Third wave will be advent for Fourth wave of technology where robotics will have penetrated each household on earth for doing our mundane tasks .
My thoughts about fourth wave (Robotics) (2030-2050)
It will not be different from any sci-fi movie .
Integral part of our life will smart devices and robots .
User interface on computer and web will be out dated . Human can communicate with machines in their natural language.So called mouse will be outdated like floppy disk and CD which are now object of antiquity .
Instead of smartphone everybody will have smart-buddy robot .
Whole computing model itself might change .Right now all operating systems and major algorithms are based on assumption that we have some standard kind of memory structure(HDD, SSD) . Our algorithms are currently tweaked for limitations of current memory systems . We are designing algorithms which have less disk seeks or they read whole page memory like continuous memory model etc.
In future this model might change as our basic assumption changes so our logarithms and so our programming language to exploit new memory model .
Current programming languages may not be enough , there might be new kind programming languages. for new computing model . Those might be even voice command based languages.
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